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PH COVID-19 cases may top 60,000 by July 31- experts

By Gabriela Baron

The number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may climb to over 60,000 by July 31, according to a study conducted by experts from the University of the Philippines (UP) and University of Santo Tomas (UST).



According to a report by GMA News, the group based their study on the current number of cases in the Philippines including the uncategorized cases.

“Assuming the trends continue, this projects to more than 60,000 COVID-19 cases by July 31, with 1,300 deaths,” it said.

The group said the estimated reproductive number of the virus in the country is around 1.28.

“The current reproduction number Rt in the Philippines is still greater than 1, with an estimate of around Rt=1.28, based on the number of new case reports, incidence of fresh cases, and the reports on positively tested individuals,” it added.

For the National Capital Region (NCR), the projection is 27,000 cases by July 31.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases in the province of Cebu may reach 20,000 by the same date, noting that Cebu City has “significantly higher transmission rates than the rest of the country.”

Increase testing capacity

The group said testing capacity must be increased to 20,000 tests daily.

“We emphasize that the projected increase in cases as deaths can be prevented by rapidly identifying and breaking chains of viral transmissions,” the group also said.

The study also identified areas having high risk for COVID-19: Agusan del Norte, Leyte, Rizal, Cebu, NCR, and Southern Leyte.

The study covered the period of March 1 to June 25.

The group of researchers is composed of UP mathematics professor Dr. Guido David, UP political science assistant professor Ranjit Singh Rye, UST research and biology professor Ma. Patricia Agbulos, and Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco of Providence College and UST.

Source: Manila Bulletin (

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