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2 to 4 tropical cyclones expected in July

By Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz

About two to four tropical cyclones are likely in July, marking the start of the peak season for typhoons in the country.

According to Ana Liza Solis, chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), these tropical cyclones are likely to make landfall over Southern and Northern Luzon or veer to the east away from the country.

The next tropical cyclones will be named Carina, Dindo, Enteng, and Ferdie.

PAGASA said that more tropical cyclones are entering the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) than anywhere else in the world, with an average of 20 tropical cyclones in this region per year. Of the 20 cyclones, eight or nine of them make landfall or traverse the Philippines.

The peak of the typhoon season in the country is July through October, when nearly 70 percent of all cyclones develop, the weather bureau noted.

Based on the PAGASA’s historical data, about six to nine tropical cyclones are likely to form from August to October, or two to three cyclones each month.

During the PAGASA’s 125th Climate Forum conducted last Wednesday, Solis said the country’s rainfall conditions in July will be generally near normal except for some patches of below normal rainfall over western Luzon, Bicol, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro provinces, and some parts of Visayas.

By August, rainfall will be generally near to above normal in most parts of the country except for most provinces in the Northern and Central Luzon, Metro Manila and parts of Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon that might experience below normal rainfall condition, she pointed out.

Rainfall will be near average for the whole country by September. By October, generally near normal rainfall condition is likely for the whole country except for some patches of below normal rainfall over Ilocos Norte, she added.

Weather in the next three days 

PAGASA said the country will continue to experience hot and humid weather in the morning and rain showers in the afternoon or evening due to the prevailing easterlies.

The easterlies, or the warm and humid winds originating from the Pacific Ocean, may continue to prevail across Visayas and Mindanao until Sunday.

Cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are likely in Biliran, Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, Southern Leyte, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao Occidental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms.

The whole country should remain alert against possible flash floods or landslides in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards in the event of severe thunderstorms, PAGASA advised.

However, the weather bureau does not expect the formation of a tropical cyclone that may affect the country in the next three to five days.

Source: Manila Bulletin (

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