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UP study shows lifting of ECQ on May 15 may result to 24,000 COVID-19 cases by June 15

By Rizal Obanil

A study conducted by a team from the University of the Philippines is urging the government to extend the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) beyond May 15 in areas like Metro Manila.

Dr. David Guido, Ph. D of the UP Institute of Mathematics; Professor Ranjit Rye, of the Department of Political Science; and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, MBM of Octa Research conducted a study on the “premature relaxation” of the ECQ.

The results of the study showed a premature relaxation of the ECQ could lead to a spike in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and fatalities.

“Our data suggest that a premature relaxation of the ECQ in the NCR (National Capital Region) may result in an escalation of 24,000 cases and 1,700 deaths by June 15, 2020,” the team from UP said in their report titled ”COVID-19 Forecasts in the Philippines: Sub-national models for NCR and other selected area.”

Government has been studying the pros and cons of lifting the ECQ and transition to general community quarantine (ECQ).

Although some indications show that the transition to GCQ for Metro Manila is what the government is now preparing for, Metro Manila Council (MMC) chairman and ParaƱaque City Mayor Edwin Olivarez said in an interview over GMA-7 that the final say on the matter is still with the Interagency Task Force (IATF).

Olivarez in the said interview also said that the MMC has yet to decide on the matter as well and based on a meeting this Saturday, May 9, will come up with a recommendation to the IATF on whether to lift the ECQ or not.

Source: Manila Bulletin (

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